How the first wave of NFL free agency impacts the 2022 NFL Draft

Image of 2022 NFL Free Agency

The first wave of NFL free-agent signings is well underway, and with every transaction comes a ripple effect on the 2022 NFL draft.

No team has been busier in free agency than the Jacksonville Jaguars, who own the first overall pick this April. Some of their early transactions have provided a clue about that first selection, too.

Their decisions to place the franchise tag on offensive tackle Cam Robinson and sign guard Brandon Scherff to a massive contract suggests they won’t use the No. 1 pick on an offensive lineman. There’s been speculation that the Jaguars were leaning toward either Alabama’s Evan Neal or North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu, but that narrative is about to change.

Instead, we may end up right back where we started with Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson being the pick. It would make sense for Jacksonville to use their first selection on a defensive player after making such massive investments on the offensive side of the ball in free agency.

Are the Browns no longer in the mix for Garrett Wilson?

The Cleveland Browns, who are currently slotted to pick 13th overall, added Amari Cooper via trade and have parted ways with Jarvis Landry. Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson was a popular mock-draft projection for the Browns until the Cooper trade, and while he may still be their preferred choice, Cooper’s addition takes pressure off the Browns to add a skill player in the first round.

Instead, I’d expect the Browns to pivot to a defensive player. A prospect like Michigan’s David Ojabo would make a lot of sense now that they’ve addressed WR1 with a clear upgrade over every pass-catcher who was on their roster last season.

D.J. Chark is a solid signing for the Lions

The Detroit Lions’ sneaky addition of wide receiver D.J. Chark will push their need for additional weapons in the passing game down their list of priorities. The duo of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chark is, actually, pretty exciting. And remember: Chark is on a one-year prove-it deal. If he hits, the Lions can re-sign him to a massive multi-year deal next year this time. If he fails, they can revisit adding a young pass-catcher in the 2023 NFL draft.

Any chance that the Lions would add a wide receiver at the end of the first round — No. 32 overall — has likely been erased. Adding Chark gives Detroit the ability to wait until day two — at the earliest — to consider one of this year’s pass-catching prospects.

Is this the year the Packers draft a WR in 1st round?

The Green Bay Packers appear headed for a standoff with wide receiver Davante Adams, and I don’t see it ending well. As a result, the Packers may actually do what Aaron Rodgers has been hoping for: draft a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Green Bay currently holds the 28th overall pick, which is a prime location in the first round for the second wave of wideouts to come off the board. Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, for example, would look really good in green and gold.

The Chiefs are setting up for ‘offensive’ draft

The Kansas City Chiefs struck on a big contract with safety Justin Reid, who instantly steps in and replaces Tyrann Mathieu. In fact, he’s an upgrade. Safety was a position draft analysts had circled as a potential first-round target for the Chiefs, but that’s no longer the case.

Remember that whole ‘Jameson Williams to the Chiefs’ narrative that had some momentum a month or so ago? Yeah, you can start stoking that flame again. Kansas City could be back on the offensive — literally — in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft.

Chargers are the wild card of 2022 NFL Draft

The Los Angeles Chargers have gone all-in on defense via trades and free agency so far. They traded for Khalil Mack and signed cornerback J.C. Jackson and defensive linemen Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson. I had the Chargers being an ideal landing spot for Jordan Davis, the massive defensive lineman from Georgia, but I’m not so sure they’ll go that route now.

There was also some speculation that Los Angeles would be a potential destination for a first-round wide receiver, but their five-year, $60 million contract with Mike Williams likely ends that narrative, too.

The Chargers are a legitimate wild card in the first round — and that’s just awesome.

Miami out of 1st-round RB mix

The Miami Dolphins added a few skill players — RB Chase Edmonds and WR Cedric Wilson — and a new ‘backup’ quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. None of these signings will move the needle all that much in the 2022 NFL Draft, but the odds that a running back will be selected in the first round dropped quite a bit with Edmonds heading to South Beach.

The Dolphins would’ve made sense for prospects like Iowa State’s Breece Hall or Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker. And if either of them are still on the board in the second round when Miami is on the clock, they’ll still be a consideration. But Edmonds is the RB1 now, which, to be honest, is kind of underwhelming.

Kirk Cousins lives on in Minnesota

The Minnesota Vikings were a team that I thought would be a darkhorse in the first-round quarterback market, but their decision to extend Kirk Cousins through 2023 eliminates them from the quarterback discussion.

The Vikings pick 12th overall in the first round, which feels like the range that Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis will begin to boil. With Cousins in place for two more seasons, Minnesota might look to trade down with a team like the New Orleans Saints who have yet to figure out who their QB-next will be.

First-round QB market shrinking

Speaking of the quarterback market, the first-round hopes of Pickett and Willis took a huge hit with the Pittsburgh Steelers signing of Mitch Trubisky.

The former second overall pick of the 2017 NFL draft is expected to compete with Mason Rudolph for the Steelers’ starting job this year, but I wouldn’t expect much of a competition at all. The Steelers know what they have in Rudolph and if they had any confidence in his ability to be the guy who replaces Big Ben, they wouldn’t have signed Trubisky.

Instead, the quarterback competition is a mere formality. Trubisky will be Pittsburgh’s QB1 in 2022 with a chance to earn a lucrative long-term deal. As a result, the Steelers would be foolish to invest in a first-round passer until they know whether Trubisky is, in fact, the answer.

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Bryan Perez

Bryan is the founder of Pro Football Draft. His work has been featured on The Draft Network, NBC Sports and USA Today. Former CFL scout.

Follow him on Twitter: @BryanPerezNFL