What the Carson Wentz trade tells us about the 2022 NFL Draft QB class

Image of Carson Wentz trade

The Washington Commanders completed a head-scratching trade for Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz on Wednesday. ESPN’s Adam Schefter shared the terms of the deal on Twitter.

The Carson Wentz trade instantly drew criticism from all corners of social media for reasons that are, well, understandable. Wentz is a known commodity at this point in his career, and not for good reasons. He is, by any measure, an underwhelming starting quarterback. But for a team like the Commanders whose options behind center are thin at best, Wentz may have been their best choice. Sure, they could’ve held out and signed a free agent like Mitch Trubisky or Jameis Winston. But their resumes are no different than Wentz’s: former first-round busts looking to resurrect their careers on a third team.

How will the Carson Wentz trade impact Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis?

OK, fine. The Commanders will start Wentz in 2022 and hope for the best. But what does this mean for the 2022 NFL Draft? Did Washington really think none of the prospects they could land at No. 11 overall is a better solution for their quarterback problem?

It’s long been assumed that Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, or Matt Corral would be high on Washington’s first-round wish list. But after surrendering a pretty significant amount of draft capital for Wentz, it’s safe to assume the Commanders are out of the first-round quarterback market.

The Denver Broncos, who completed a blockbuster deal for Russell Wilson on Tuesday, are out of that mix too.

That leaves the Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New Orleans Saints as the lone quarterback-needy teams who may still swing on one of this year’s passers in round one. But as the list of teams who need a quarterback continues to shrink, there’s a chance that even those clubs could choose to wait until the second round to select a quarterback. There’s no reason to reach in the first round if the supply is greater than the demand, right?

Stock down on the 2022 NFL Draft QB class

The 2022 NFL Draft was never considered a strong one at quarterback. Pickett, who’s trending as this year’s QB1, is more of a mid-to-late first-round prospect in a traditional year. Willis, the quarterback with the most upside but the rawest skill set, would normally be a second-round pick. Both quarterbacks have been discussed as top-11 prospects in large part because the Broncos and Commanders — who prior to these deals held the No. 9 and No. 11 selections — desperately needed that QB-next. And now that that’s no longer the case, there’s a very real chance that one or both of this year’s top quarterbacks could suffer a significant draft-day slide.

The Commanders’ trade for Wentz is especially telling. Look, no one would argue that the Broncos reached on Wilson. Even in the 2021 NFL Draft, when there were five legitimate first-round prospects, Wilson would’ve been the biggest catch at the position. So in the 2022 NFL Draft cycle, when none of this year’s quarterbacks come anywhere close to last year’s prospects, it’s a no-brainer to close a big deal for him. But Wentz? He’s been so disappointing over the last few years that it felt very much like his time as a starting quarterback was coming to an end. Yet, Washington decided to trade for him instead of drafting one of this year’s quarterbacks.

Buckle up, draft fans. The quarterback narrative that’s been sold to us for the last couple of months has been flipped upside down. I’ve long been saying that I don’t see more than two quarterbacks coming off the board in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft despite most mock drafts from other media outlets having as many as four or even five in round one.

After this flurry of trade activity, and the likely free-agent signings filling the void of other quarterback-needy teams, we could be headed for a 2022 NFL Draft with just one — yes, one — quarterback picked in the top 32.

Bryan Perez

Bryan is the founder of Pro Football Draft. His work has been featured on The Draft Network, NBC Sports and USA Today. Former CFL scout.

Follow him on Twitter: @BryanPerezNFL