One of the traits scouts grade when evaluating quarterback prospects is their ability to consistently throw deep passes with accuracy. For most scouts, a deep ball is one that travels at least 20 yards or more in the air.
But how important is that ability?
Take the 2019 season as an example of how rarely quarterbacks actually throw the ball beyond 20 yards. Russell Wilson led the NFL with 16.5% of his passes traveling more than 20 yards in the air while Aaron Rodgers was second with 16.3% of his attempts qualifying as deep throws. Most NFL starters fall somewhere between 12%-15% of their attempts exceeding the 20-yard mark.
Put another way, roughly 85% of an NFL quarterback’s attempts will fall within the short to intermediate range, which is why players like Drew Brees, who was never lauded as a prospect with a downfield rifle, has been able to succeed at a Hall of Fame level. 91.8% of Brees’ throws in 2019 traveled less than 20 yards in the air, according to Pro Football Focus.
Still, it’s a scout’s job to make sure he or she has a complete breakdown of a prospect’s game. And let’s face it: if a quarterback can change a game in one play because of his deep-ball ability, he does offer more value. Even though Patrick Mahomes only attempted 63 deep passes in 2019, they accounted for 1,141 yards and 13 touchdowns.
As we turn our attention to the 2021 NFL draft and the quarterback prospects who are expected to declare, the following players enter the 2020 season ranked by PFF as the best deep passers in college football.
Jamie Newman, Georgia
PFF deep ball rank: 2
“Over 67% of his deep pass attempts were to a tight window, leading all Power-5 quarterbacks — yet, he was among the three highest-graded deep passers in the nation. He was the only quarterback to have more than 10 big-time throws and one or fewer turnover-worthy plays to a tight window on deep passes.”
Justin Fields, Ohio State
PFF deep ball rank: 3
“His 31 big-time throws on deep attempts tied with (Sam) Howell for the second-most in 2019. With his arm talent and mobility, Fields is just an explosive play waiting to happen.”
Ian Book, Notre Dame
PFF deep ball rank: 6
“Book had success as a deep passer because of his sharp accuracy — but in all honesty, he has a pretty limited arm. On his deep passes in 2018, 39.3% were deemed perfectly placed according to PFF’s ball-charting process, ranking second to only Joe Burrow, who sat at 48% (another topic of conversation there, but Burrow’s accuracy was just ridiculous).”
One name that’s noticeably absent is Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, who didn’t crack PFF’s top-10 ranking of deep-ball passers. Pro Football Focus noted that Lawrence regressed to 39th after finishing 11th in 2018. That shouldn’t impact Lawrence’s final grade all that much. He checks every box to be classified as a franchise quarterback prospect.
